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Buyers are ‘aggressive’ but not willing to pay ‘silly money’

March 2021

 

New Zealand’s active property market has seen home prices climb at record levels, but buyers are reluctant to overpay for a property. REINZ’s recent survey found that first home buyers (46 percent) and investors (31 percent) made up the bulk of interest in property, and this has led to strengthened prices.

Property prices have increased across the board, and strong buyer demand is at a level that Harveys Te Atatu business owner Paul Vujnovich has not seen during his 17 years in the industry.

“That being said, since Christmas it appears buyers do feel that current pricing levels are bordering on excessive in some situations. We have seen some properties ‘stick’ where sellers’ expectations are just simply not realistic, even given the strong buyer demand,” Vujnovich said.

“This is quite common in a market such as this where sellers increased expectations can get outside where the market sees value, even in a seller’s market such as this.”

 

Despite a lot of aggressive activity, Vujnovich has seen a pushback from buyers who are not prepared to pay ‘silly money’ for property, especially in the $800,000 to $1.2 million bracket.

In contrast, developers appear to have deeper pockets. “Developers are very active and are happy to pay excellent money for ‘slam dunk’ development properties. However, a property having a large land parcel alone does not necessarily present attractively should the zoning, services and access not be favourable,” he said.

LJ Hooker principal Dylan Turner has noticed a real sense of urgency in his local market across South Auckland.

 

“Buyers know they are paying too much, but they understand the market should keep going up this year and continue to increase year on year into 2022,” Turner said.

 

He noted that there are still thousands of New Zealanders overseas who want to come home.

 

“Supply and demand will dictate our market trends for a few years yet,” he said. “Interest rates are still crazy low, and I really think the Reserve Bank is hamstrung with no ability to move upwards in the short term.”

 

Turner’s advice to homeowners considering selling is: “it’s a great time to sell, but be warned, you will want to buy again very quickly as the market can race up by one to two thousand dollars a week when the conditions are like they are now.”

 

 

Positive property market conditions continue in 2021

February 2021

 

Despite the economic slowdown Covid-19 restrictions caused around the globe in 2020, New Zealand avoided getting stuck in an economic rut, and swiftly got out of a recession.

The property market went from strength to strength, home values reached new records and listings were sold in record times.

As experts turn to their crystal ball to predict what 2021 will deliver, conditions remain good for continued market growth.

Low mortgage rates and a tight supply of listings could keep an upward trend of property values throughout the year.

CoreLogic’s Senior Property Economist Kelvin Davidson has noted how the property market has become political to try and cool the heat of rising prices. He said Finance Minister Grant Robertson’s public letter to the Reserve Bank Governor demonstrates it might not be “plain sailing for the property market in terms of regulatory measures in 2021”.

“There’s already speculation emerging about an extension to the Brightline Test (a capital gains tax that currently applies if an investor sells a property within five years), while debt-to-income ratios for new mortgage lending is also rearing its head too,” Mr Davidson said.

LVRs are set to be officially reinstated by the RBNZ on March 1, this will not affect owner-occupiers, but investors will need to have at least a 30 percent deposit instead of 20 percent.

“With general demand still so strong, it seems unlikely that the return of the LVR rules will be a game-changer. Of  course, as we saw back in 2016, pushing investor deposit requirements back up to 40 percent could be more significant – and while it doesn’t seem to be on the table at present, that couldn’t be ruled out if market momentum remains strong,” he said.

Quotable Value’s General Manager David Nagel also expects property prices to continue to rise, albeit at a considerable slower rate than during the back half of 2020.

“I’m predicting we’ll see something more akin to 2019 levels of growth again, when prices increased by an average of 4-5 percent nationally, as opposed to the rampant double-figure growth that we’ve witnessed,” Mr Nagel said.

Although our economic trajectory seems positive, with no guarantee the country won’t be forced back into further lockdowns to squash any Covid-19 community transmissions, more economic strife could come. However, 2020 showed us how resilient our residential property market is, he said.

“While interest rates remain so low, it’s difficult – but certainly not impossible – to fathom a scenario in which prices would fall dramatically. “Until we address this country’s chronic shortage of housing … we’re likely to have more buyers than we do houses, which is only going to keep prices up.”

Portfolio managers will monitor the market closely this year as the strength of the housing market will flow-on to the economy, Milford Asset Management Portfolio Manager Sam Trethewey said.

“There is a risk that the RBNZ may decide to try and take the steam out of the market with renewed lending restrictions or via other macro prudential measures,” he said. “On the issue of limited supply, any material changes to land availably and possible changes to the Resource Management Act should be watched; however we would not anticipate a quick fix solution to supply issues.”

ANZ Research’s latest NZ Forecast Update expects a cooling in the pace of house price inflation during the first half of this year due to affordability and LVR restrictions.

“The market has momentum on its side, and a history of defying gravity for longer than one would think reasonable,” the report reads.

“A longer boom is entirely feasible, though that would bring with it greater chances of a bust down the track, given affordability metrics and already highly strained and household debt at record highs. If the housing market is still going strong in May, the RBNZ won’t be cutting the OCR.”

CoreLogic predicts that property sales volumes this year will be in the range of 85,000 to 90,000, similar to 2020 figures.

 

Top tips for finding that perfect bach

January 2021

Families across New Zealand ventured to the beach this summer. They got their dose of sun, sand and salt water. Folks enjoyed the slow and relaxing life, getting their toes wet, licking up the ice cream before it dripped down their fingers, and enjoying life with their family.

Families across New Zealand ventured to the beach this summer. They got their dose of sun, sand and salt water. Folks enjoyed the slow and relaxing life, getting their toes wet, licking up the ice cream before it dripped down their fingers, and enjoying life with their family.

The summer holidays have finished, and many people have got back into their work routine. But are you left wondering whether a bach is right for you?

Before you make that leap and get your hopes up that next summer you will be spending it with your family in your own bach, LJ Hooker Waihi Beach’s Gary Alway says you need to do your homework, and make sure your finances are in order.

The market is moving quickly, and there is a lot of interest in holiday homes that you need to be sure you are ready to invest and you have the money ready to go.

“Don’t wait for properties to make the internet,” Alway suggests. “If you are serious, we encourage you to meet an agent. Then we can sit down with you, get a real handle on what you want – such as the right location, number of rooms, etc – and then we can take you for a drive around the beach so you can get a feel for the different locations and pricing.”

Going into an office will give you the chance to see newly listed properties before they reach the general market.

“If you wait for a property to reach the internet, chances are our personal database is already in full flight, and clients are already going through the property – there will be people who have a head start on you,” Alway says.

Unlike your family home, Alway says you need to look at a property as a beach house with potential.

“Beach houses have often been in families for generations and they have had bits and bobs added to it over the years,” he says. “You need to remember it isn’t your permanent home and it won’t be 100 percent perfect. If you are looking for perfection, you may well be waiting for a very long time.”

You can also look at your first bach as a steppingstone.

“Your first beach house could also be a first step onto the beach, and not your forever beach house.”

Once you have found your ideal bach, every bit of leverage you can create will help sweeten the negotiation process, and make sure you can put forward the cleanest offer.

“Talking to LOCAL real estate people is key,” Alway says. “Those who know the area well are the ones who can explain all the different locations around the beach.

“Don’t wait! If you are serious you need to act as soon as you are notified the property is on the market.”